Sunday, October 13, 2019

Week 2 Post: Trump primary challenges



Recently, Trump had another Republican declare against him in the primary. This time being former Rep. Joe Walsh. This has led to the idea that there is a growing sentiment in the GOP against the President. As mentioned by Five-Thirty-Eight, most of these challenges are considered non-real threats including other competitors such as Mark Sanford. This is interesting due to the fact that his challengers aren't ones you would expect due to the fact that challengers in non-competitive primaries typically run for increased name credibility but these two challengers are well recognized in their party. These challenges know they won't win as FiveThirtyEight mentioned, Trump has one of the highest approval ratings of the modern era. The more interesting part is that they largely are challenging him to try to spread a message and revert the republican party to more traditional conservatism instead of Trump's populist conservative message that is extremely popular with the current GOP.

Looking at what challengers could mean for Trump's reelection is a different idea. Even if they aren't true contenders they could still cost Trump on election day. Republicans have historically won due to being able to appeal to independent and moderate voters. This is due to their being less registered republicans than democrats but republicans make up for this with high turnout and independent support where democrats win by numbers but have typically lower turn out ratings.

Additionally, these challenges could cost Trump because they represent areas, especially Walsh, where they are "white-collared" conservatives who have typically disliked the President especially in the recent terms where he was overwhelmingly rebuked by this republican voting block in areas such as Orange County which was previously a GOP stronghold for 25 years. Overall it will be interesting to see how this cycle turns out due to its unique conditions.

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